Data centers could erase decades of air quality gains

A rapid expansion of data centers in Texas could reverse long-running improvements in the state’s air quality, according to new analysis from the Houston Advanced Research Center. The warning centers on the enormous electricity needs of facilities being built or proposed to support the growth of generative AI. If those projects draw power from the Texas grid under the energy mix researchers expect, emissions linked to electricity generation could climb sharply within five years, bringing some pollutants close to levels last seen roughly two decades ago.

The findings make Texas an early test of a broader question facing the technology industry: whether the infrastructure behind AI can grow without adding substantially to local pollution. Data centers run continuously and require large, reliable supplies of electricity. Their environmental footprint therefore depends not only on their servers and cooling systems, but also on the power plants and fuels used to meet their demand. The research presents Texas as a consequential case because it has become a major hub for this kind of construction.

Under the modeled grid-powered outcome, fine-particle pollution from the power sector would rise to more than three times its current level. Such soot pollution would reach its highest point since 2006, the report says. Nitrogen oxides, a class of emissions that contributes to smog formation, would increase by 136 percent and move toward levels recorded in 2004. Carbon dioxide emissions from the same sector would be 90 percent higher than they were in 2025.

Those projections are not forecasts set in stone. HARC examined three possible paths for data-center electricity demand, and the final scale of development remains uncertain. Some projects announced or proposed may never be completed. The report instead illustrates how much hinges on decisions by developers, utilities and policymakers as facilities seek connections and additional generating capacity. The difference between a buildout supplied mainly by fossil-fuel generation and one supported by cleaner power could determine whether the growth creates a major new air-pollution burden.

Renewables offer one route to a lower-emissions outcome. The research found that nitrogen-oxide emissions could be as much as ten times lower when facilities combine grid electricity with solar and wind generation built on site. That option would reduce the added pollution associated with meeting new demand. It also underscores that data-center construction alone does not dictate the result; the sources selected to operate those centers matter just as much as the number, size and timing of the projects themselves.

A different approach could worsen the picture. Some developers are considering on-site gas engines to avoid lengthy waits for connections to the grid. HARC’s analysis indicates that this choice could produce the highest pollution outcome. Developers have also turned to gas-turbine equipment that is less efficient in an effort to move projects forward faster. The speed of the data-center boom, in other words, may encourage power decisions that address immediate construction constraints while increasing pollution compared with alternatives that rely more heavily on renewable supply.

The state’s scale makes the issue especially important. Texas leads North American data-center markets by power capacity, with 26 gigawatts already operating or under construction, according to JLL. A separate March report from Wood Mackenzie found that Texas was preparing for four times as much proposed data-center capacity served by on-site generation as any other state. That concentration means choices made there could have an outsized effect on both the industry’s energy model and nearby air quality.

The study’s central message is therefore conditional rather than inevitable. Decades of work by transportation officials, state authorities and other groups have brought emissions down, HARC said, but that progress is vulnerable if new electricity demand is met with dirtier generation. The next phase will be shaped by which proposed centers proceed, how quickly they can obtain grid access, and whether developers pair their projects with renewable resources instead of gas-powered alternatives. For Texas, the research frames data-center planning as an air-quality decision as well as a technology and energy one.

Source: The Verge