Forecasters warn a record-breaking 'super' El Nino may form by late 2026

Climate scientists are tracking a Pacific Ocean warming pattern that could grow into the strongest El Nino on record. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now estimates a 61% probability that an El Nino event will emerge by July, with about a one-in-four chance of it reaching 'very strong' intensity in the central Pacific.

Paul Roundy, an atmospheric science professor at the University at Albany, told BBC Science Focus that he sees roughly a 50% chance the event becomes the strongest in the historical record, up from about 20% only weeks earlier. A super El Nino is generally defined by sea-surface temperatures rising more than 2 C above normal in a key central Pacific region. Only three such events have been documented since reliable records began: 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998, and 2015 to 2016.

Warm water building beneath the surface ahead of this event is already about 0.5 C above the conditions that preceded the 1997 to 1998 El Nino, often cited as the most powerful of the 20th century. That extra heat raises the ceiling for how intense the coming event could become, although the final strength depends on winds, ocean mixing and other variables that are hard to forecast months ahead.

The stakes go beyond a single hot year. A December 2025 study in Nature Communications found that super El Ninos significantly raise the odds of 'climate regime shifts,' abrupt and persistent changes in temperature, sea surface conditions and soil moisture that can linger for years or decades after the event fades.

Researchers caution that probabilistic forecasts are not certainties, and that planning agencies should treat the numbers as a heads-up rather than a guarantee. Even so, water managers, farmers and public health officials are being urged to prepare for drought, flood and heat extremes in the months ahead.