Hyundai expected to outsell Ford in third quarter as Detroit automakers lack hybrids

Hyundai Motor is on course to sell more vehicles in the United States than Ford Motor in the third quarter, a result that would mark a first in the two companies’ sales rivalry. Cox Automotive’s forecast, released Thursday, puts the South Korean manufacturer slightly ahead for the July-to-September period. The projected change would underscore how demand for hybrid models is influencing the competitive picture among major automakers.

Cox expects Hyundai’s third-quarter volume to reach 511,421 vehicles. That would represent a 6.5% rise from the same quarter a year earlier. Ford, by comparison, is forecast to sell 504,172 new vehicles, which would be a 7.1% year-over-year drop. The difference is narrow, but it would be enough to move Hyundai ahead of the Detroit-based company for the quarter if the estimates are borne out.

The forecast puts Hyundai 7,249 vehicles ahead of Ford. That is a relatively slim margin when measured against the companies’ expected quarterly totals, but it is large enough to carry symbolic weight. Ford has long occupied a prominent position among U.S. vehicle sellers, so an overtake by Hyundai would stand out even if it is limited to one reporting period.

The projection is not a report of final sales, and the ranking will depend on the companies’ actual results once the quarter closes and figures are released. Still, the forecast offers an early indication that Hyundai’s momentum could translate into a notable shift in the market’s familiar order. The outcome will hinge on whether the expected gains and declines are reflected in the final totals.

Analysts at Cox link the pressure facing Ford and General Motors to a limited supply of hybrid offerings. Their assessment points to an important product-planning challenge for Detroit’s largest automakers: consumers’ interest in electrified vehicles does not rest on fully electric models alone. Hybrid availability has become a significant competitive consideration as buyers weigh different vehicle options.

For Hyundai, the expected increase would arrive while Ford’s projected decline pulls the two sales totals closer together. The contrast is central to the forecast. Hyundai is not merely expected to maintain its pace; it is projected to expand deliveries from last year’s third quarter. Ford, meanwhile, is expected to sell fewer new vehicles than it did during the equivalent period, creating the opening for Hyundai to pass it.

The outlook also places General Motors in the broader discussion, even though the forecast figures highlighted for this comparison concern Hyundai and Ford. Cox’s analysts said both Ford and GM have been affected by not having extensive hybrid lineups. That does not establish a single cause for every sales result, but it identifies hybrid availability as a meaningful issue as automakers respond to changing demand.

The projected result also illustrates how closely contested a quarter can become when one company’s sales are rising and another’s are falling. Hyundai’s expected growth and Ford’s anticipated contraction move the companies into an unusually tight comparison. The forecast does not suggest that all other elements of their businesses are identical; it instead highlights the sales implications of their respective positions during this three-month stretch.

There is a distinction between a quarterly overtake and a permanent reordering of the industry. One three-month period can reflect product availability, shifting buyer preferences and the timing of sales, rather than a lasting change in overall scale. Hyundai’s projected edge is therefore best viewed as a test of a market moment, not proof that its position will remain ahead of Ford beyond the third quarter.

The next point to watch is the final sales tally for July, August and September. If Cox’s projection is confirmed, Hyundai will have achieved a milestone against Ford while the Detroit automakers confront the hybrid gap identified by the analysts. If the eventual reports differ, the forecast will still have highlighted a closely contested quarter and the importance of having enough hybrid choices in the lineup.

Source: CNBC Business