Sweden's election could mark major milestone for Europe's populist right

Sweden will vote on Sunday in an election that could reshape the country’s political landscape and carry significance beyond its borders. The contest comes as the Nordic nation, now NATO’s newest member, confronts arguments over migration, public safety and national direction. At the center of the campaign is a question that once appeared unlikely: whether the Sweden Democrats, a party long isolated because of its far-right origins, could move from influence on the margins into formal government office.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson leads the center-right side of the contest, while former prime minister Magdalena Andersson heads a center-left alliance anchored by the Social Democrats. Their competing blocs remain the principal electoral vehicles, but the potential role of the Sweden Democrats has altered the campaign’s stakes. A place in the governing coalition would be a first for the party and would give it direct responsibility for state ministries rather than influence exercised from outside the cabinet.

The party’s rise reflects a broader European development. Populist parties on the right have expanded their support in several countries as immigration has become a more prominent source of voter concern. Sweden has experienced that shift as well, with debate over border rules, integration and crime moving closer to the core of mainstream politics. The election therefore offers a national decision with wider relevance for European parties seeking to turn electoral gains into executive power.

For much of its history, the Sweden Democrats were treated as unacceptable partners by established Swedish parties. The party acknowledges that people connected to its early period had ties to neo-Nazi and white-supremacist circles. Under leader Jimmie Åkesson, who has led the party since 2005, it has sought to remove extremist figures, recast its public profile and present itself as a conventional right-wing force. That effort has taken place over two decades rather than in a single campaign.

The strategy produced a major electoral breakthrough. The Sweden Democrats entered parliament in 2010 and became Sweden’s second-largest party after the 2022 election. It then agreed to support Kristersson’s minority administration without taking cabinet posts. That arrangement allowed the party to shape policy discussions, particularly on immigration and crime, while avoiding direct control of government departments and the accountability that comes with ministerial office.

Kristersson has now indicated that, if the right retains power, the Sweden Democrats could be offered ministerial positions as part of a majority government. Such a step would make this election a measure of how far the party’s normalization has advanced. It would also test whether voters are comfortable with a party once rejected by nearly the entire political establishment helping to administer the country, not merely supplying parliamentary votes.

Immigration and crime have been especially important to the Sweden Democrats’ appeal and to the changing terms of Swedish political debate. The party has promoted deportations for people without legal permission to remain, stricter citizenship requirements, stronger assimilation demands for newcomers and limits on social-security access for non-citizens. It has also paired tough positions commonly associated with the right with measures aimed at economically insecure and working-class voters, including support for welfare protections.

The political movement on these issues has not been confined to the right. Sweden’s major parties, including the Social Democrats, have taken more restrictive approaches to immigration and crime than in earlier periods. That overlap complicates a simple reading of the campaign: voters are choosing between blocs with different governing agendas, while the Sweden Democrats’ possible cabinet role has become a separate and highly consequential issue. The result will show whether party influence can be converted into a more permanent place within Sweden’s governing establishment.

With the two blocs competing closely, post-election negotiations may be as important as the vote itself. A center-right victory would raise immediate questions about the terms under which the Sweden Democrats might enter government. A center-left win would leave the party outside the cabinet, but would not erase the political changes that brought it to prominence. Either outcome will be watched across Europe as an indication of the limits, and the possibilities, facing populist-right parties that seek to become governing partners.

Source: CBS World